METS TEAM OFFENSE: (boy I hope my numbers are right)
March-April 2010: (14-9) RS: 105, RA: 73
20th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 23rd in BA, 17th in OBP, 22nd in SLG
.242 / .329 / .384 / .713
33 2B, 11 3B, 18 HR, 92 RBI, 105 R
20 SB, 4 CS, 94 BB, 162 SO
May 2010: (12-17) RS: 130, RA: 146
9th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 9th in BA, 16th in OBP, 14th in SLG
.264 / .324 / .401 / .726
56 2B, 5 3B, 23 HR, 130 RBI, 130 R
33 SB, 6 CS, 87 BB, 199 SO
June 2010: (18-8) RS: 126, RA: 93
7th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 9th in BA, 19th in OBP, 5th in SLG
.274 / .324 / .424 / .748
51 2B, 5 3B, 24 HR, 122 RBI, 126 R
22 SB, 8 CS, 61 BB, 158 SO
July 2010 (through July 29): (8-16) RS: 77, RA: 86
29th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 29th in BA, 29th in OBP, 28th in SLG
(Seattle is 30th in all of the above categories)
.229 / .291 / .351 / .642
35 2B, 7 3B, 18 HR, 76 RBI, 77 R
16 SB, 9 CS, 67 BB, 176 SO
2010 Season (through July 29): (51-50) RS: 438, RA: 398
24th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 24th in BA, 25th in OBP, 23rd in SLG
.253 / .317 / .391 / .708
175 2B, 28 3B, 83 HR, 420 RBI, 438 R
91 SB, 27 CS, 309 BB, 695 SO
A couple of things jump out...
- May 2010: RS: 130, RA: 146 - means that the overall pitching wasn't so hot that month, giving up 146 runs in 31 games. That's an average of 4.7 runs per game.
- While from month to month, different aspects of the offense fluctuate, there is one basic constant. The team has never had an impressive team OBP. For example, in June, the best month of the season for the Mets, they ranked last in the NL in walks with 61. The Braves were highest with 113. Some people may say, "well of course, they've got Jeff Francoeur!" But it's more than just one player that pulls down the overall OBP. A team OBP of .330 at minimum is what you're striving for.
- You don't necessarily HAVE to have a great offense to be in 1st place, but it's better to have one than not. The San Diego Padres' offensive numbers on the whole are about equal to the Mets on the season. The difference is that their pitching/bullpen has been much better than the Mets, and for the most part, pitching isn't the problem for New York though it can be improved.
- The overall offensive dropoff is of concern, but there's also no real explainable reason for it other than the simple increase in games played on the road this month, and having 11 of them immediately after the All-Star Break.
- The more you look at the numbers, it SEEMS that it reinforces what we've seen develop over the course of this season. The 2010 Mets are VERY GOOD at home, and VERY BAD on the road. Of course, most MLB teams do not have winning records away from their home ballparks, but the Mets road record is worse than the norm. The Mets current woes seem to simply be more of a function of their schedule than anything else one can point at. I wish there was a tangible reason one could point to as to why the Mets are so bad on the road, because then you know, they could fix it? But since we don't know why...
2010 Mets at Home: (49 games) (32-17) RS: 226, RA: 147
.269 / .342 / .418 / .760
16th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 14th in BA, 12th in OBP, 17th in SLG
83 2B, 19 3B, 39 HR, 214 RBI, 226 R
50 SB, 7 CS, 168 BB, 295 SO
2010 Mets on the Road: (53 games) (20-33) RS: 212, RA: 251
.239 / .295 / .369 / .663
27th in MLB using OPS as the sorter, 25th in BA, 28th in OBP, 25th in SLG
92 2B, 9 3B, 44 HR, 206 RBI, 212 R
41 SB, 20 CS, 141 BB, 400 SO
- In April 2010, the Mets had 16 home games and 7 road games. They were 14-9 in that month. Keep in mind the team got off to a slow 4-8 start before turning things around with the 9-1 homestand against the Braves, Cubs and Dodgers.
- In May 2010, the Mets had 12 home games and 15 road games. They were 12-15 that month.
- In June 2010, the Mets had 12 home games and 14 road games. They were 18-8 that month. Although it helps when 6 of your road games are against Baltimore and Cleveland, two of the worst teams in the AL. The Mets swept both 3-game series for 6 wins.
- In July 2010, the Mets have 11 home games and 15 road games. As of July 29, they are 8-16. Assuming the Mets somehow won their next 2 July games (against Arizona) at Citi Field, they would have a record of 10-16 for the month.
- In August 2010, the Mets have 13 home games and 15 road games. 5 of those road games are against NL East 1st-place Atlanta.
- In September-October 2010, the Mets have 17 home games and 13 road games.
SO WHAT'S LEFT?
- As of July 29, the team has 32 remaining home games, and 28 remaining home games.
- With a current record of 52-50, if we're to assume that the rest of the Mets' season W-L is completely based on home/away (32-28), they'll finish at 84-78. A respectable record, but not a playoff team.
- One key advantage the Mets SHOULD have over the next 60 games is that they're going to get in some away games against the NL's worst teams (Houston, Pittsburgh) along with some home series against Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Houston and Arizona. Of course, they couldn't beat Arizona on the road even once...
- There are still a fair amount of games against the NL East that remain, which is ultimately the true test for the New York Mets. 33 of the next 60 games are against NL East teams. 10 vs Atlanta, 12 vs Philadelphia, 5 vs Florida, 6 vs Washington.
- The biggest hump for the Mets (assuming they are still contending at this point) is a 10-game road trip at the end of August/beginning of September against Atlanta (4), Chicago (3) and Washington (3).
- I believe the next 3 home games and subsequent road trip against Atlanta and Philadelphia will give us some insight as to whether this is a prolonged offensive slump the team is under that transcends home ballpark play, or if it's simply a function of schedule. Thus far, it seems to be the schedule.