WestCoastMets's blog

2009 MLB Playoff Predictions - ALCS and NLDS

Round 1 of the 2009 MLB Playoffs has completed, and I did not do very well in my predictions, which you can point and laugh at here.

Of course, predictions are just that. Results you expect to occur, hopefully with some rhyme and reason to back it all up. Whether they actually become reality or not, is a whole nother story.

So first, a little wrap-up of the ALDS and NLDS before moving onto the ALCS and NLDS.

AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES:

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins

My prediction: Yankees in 3 games.

Reality: Yankees in 3 games

The only prediction that I got right, and I suspect that a lot of people got right too. The Twins weren't good enough to compete with the Bombers, and even during the games that they might have actually taken from the Yanks, they couldn't win. Game 2 was the ultimate in that case, with the Phil Cuzzi blown call in leftfield taking center stage, but the Twins had numerous opportunities to score in that game and never did.

Closer Joe Nathan continued his terrible postseason by giving up a game-tying HR in the bottom of the 9th of Game 2 to A-Rod, and also gave up 2 hits to the Yankees in the 9th inning of Game 3. Those hits led to 2 Yankee runs which were charged to other Twins relievers, but Nathan couldn't stop the Yankees from scoring. As great as Joe Nathan is during the regular season, he's been quite awful in the postseason, posting a 7.88 ERA.

AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES:

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. Boston Red Sox

My prediction: Boston in 4 games.

Reality: Angels in 3 games.

Never so happy to be so wrong on both counts.

The Angels were supposed to be shut down by Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. Instead, it was the pitching of the Angels in the first two games that shut down the Red Sox. Lackey in Game 1, Weaver in Game 2. The Angels' gave up 1 run to Boston in the first two games.

Game 3 was probably the best game of the entire Division Series, because of the unlikeliest of unlikely comebacks against Boston's closer Jonathan Papelbon leading the Angels to a 3-game sweep over their nemesis. I could write more about it here, but my liveblog of the game says it all.

NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies

My prediction: Colorado in 4 games.
Reality: Philadelphia in 4 games.

Right number of games, wrong team.

The bottom line in this series was Cliff Lee, the Phillies bullpen not blowing things, especially Brad Lidge notching 2 saves in the series. That, plus the Phillies' offense out-hitting and out-running the Rockies, and the inability of Rockies closer Huston Street to stave off the Phillies' comeback in Game 4.

NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

My prediction: St. Louis in 5 games.

Reality: Dodgers in 3 games.

I definitely figured this series was going to be a lot more competitive than it turned out. Although I was correct in that the Dodgers needed to survive by hitting off of St. Louis' shaky bullpen. I didn't however, expect Matt Holliday to drop the ball in Game 2, and then Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin to be unable to get any of the additional batters out despite having 2 outs. That game was a heartbreaker if you're a St. Louis fan, or a Dodgers despiser like me.

Game 3 was the pitching performance of Vicente Padilla's lifetime, as he shut down the Cardinals over 7 strong innings of 4-hit ball. The Dodgers did not have any problems hitting Joel Pineiro though, en route to a surprising sweep of the Cardinals. It's not that the Dodgers didn't have a chance against St. Louis, but no one expected the Cards to fold the way they did.

The Dodgers pitching was also brilliant in the series, giving up 6 runs over 3 games. 

So with the ALCS and NLCS set, we have a rematch of last year's NLCS between Philadelphia and Los Angeles, and a highly anticipated 7-game series matchup between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  No wild cards this season.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

History favors the Angels here, as they beat the Yankees in both the 2002 and 2005 ALDS. Both times, the Yankees were the favorite. Does history matter this time? After all, Boston owned the Angels in the past.

The main difference that everyone keeps talking about between the Angels and Yankees, is the bullpen. The Yankees have Mariano Rivera, the Angels have the inconsistent Brian Fuentes. But the Yankees had Rivera in 2002 and 2005 too. And while the Angels had better bullpens in those seasons, they still managed to attack Yankee pitching before Rivera could make an impact. For all of the negatives in the Angels bullpen one can lob, they've been outstanding in the postseason thus far. Plus, the postseason Angels bullpen is slightly different from the regular season version, using 2 fairly successful starters (Ervin Santana and Matt Palmer) in middle relief, along with Darren Oliver, Jason Bulger, Kevin Jepsen and Brian Fuentes. 

The Yankees definitely have the sluggers with A-Rod, Tex, Posada, Matsui, with Mr. October/November Derek Jeter always a pest in the postseason against every team he plays against. But the Angels' also have some firepower of their own in Torii Hunter and Kendry Morales. Plus Vlad is always still a power threat, even if he's not the same player he used to be. Still, this is the one undeniable advantage the Yankees' offense has over the Angels. Especially now that A-Rod has been able to hit in the postseason for once as a New York Yankee. Damn you Kate Hudson!

Starting pitching is a big factor in this matchup, with CC Sabathia expected to pitch Games 1, 4 and 7 if needed. CC is a fantastic pitcher without question, but his numbers against the Angels over his career (5-7, 4.72 ERA) are not favorable. Nor has be been successful against them this season, going 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in 2 starts against Anaheim. Sabathia has also not proven to be the best postseason pitcher, with Game 1 of the ALDS against Minnesota being the first sign that Sabathia can actually pitch well in October. Whether he can do the same against Anaheim remains to be seen. 

Everyone is predicting the Yankees in a long series, and unfortunately, I'm inclined to agree. Less so because of the bullpen, moreso because of the Yankees' offense. The Angels may end up running the bases all day, but with the Yankees getting home field advantage in their band box, I see this series ever so slightly tipping the Yankee's way.

I really really really really hope I am wrong again, but...

My prediction: Yankees in 7 games.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

This is also a very interesting matchup. A rematch of the 2008 NLCS that Philadelphia won in 5 games. This year, Philadelphia's pitching is weaker overall, but they do have a bonafide ace in Cliff Lee, who was phenomenal against the Rockies in the NLDS.

The Dodgers have probably the best top-to-bottom bullpen of the remaining 4 teams, and that includes the Yankees. But the Phillies have an extremely potent offense, capable of rattling the Dodger's starters, none of which, except perhaps Clayton Kershaw, should have any significant dominant effect on Philadelphia. The resurgence of Brad Lidge as the Phillies closer, at least based on the NLDS, can't go unnoticed, even if it was only 2 games.

Still, if Phillie starters after Cliff Lee can't be effective in the NLCS, they are going to be in trouble. Cole Hamels is going to pitch Game 1, and he's gotta find his 2008 form somehow after suffering a very mediocre 2009 season. Pedro Martinez is slated to pitch Game 2 at Dodger Stadium, although he has been scarce during the last couple of weeks after suffering a stiff neck problem towards the end of the season.

They say that in the postseason, great pitching beats great hitting. But I don't see the Dodgers having great pitching this time. There's no way in hell that Vicente Padilla makes lightning strikes twice in the postseason, is there? I see the Philadelphia offense being able to handle the Dodgers as they did last year, even with the questions surrounding their pitching staff beyond Cliff Lee.

My prediction: Philadelphia in 6 games.

Rudy Jaramillo is available. But is there a spot for him with the Mets?

Mets don't have plans to speak to Rudy Jaramill o

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-don-t-have-plans-to-speak-to-jaramillo-1.152410 7 Often when Met fans want someone fired, they don't have a solution to who the replacement is other than someone from the 1986 Mets, or Bobby Valentine. But in this case, if there was ever a person in MLB that could be a significant upgrade over Howard Johnson at the hitting coach spot (and mind you, I don't put a ton of stock into hitting/pitching coaches unless there's significant data that you can't ignore) it'd be Rangers' hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo. Like Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan, Jaramillo isn't going to stick with his former employer come 2010, and as it would have it, the Mets COULD bring him on board if the club felt Howard Johnson was not the best man for the job. As it turns out, the Wilpons love HoJo, and based on the Mets' team BA of .270 this season (tied with the Dodgers for 1st in the NL), and relatively strong RISP hitting numbers, you can't necessarily find cause to fire him either. From a political perspective, with Rudy Jaramillo once a former managerial candidate for the Metropolitans, you can understand why the club might be somewhat loathe to bring Jaramillo on board in any position other than hitting coach for fear it would be perceived as him waiting in the wings to take Jerry's or Howard Johnson's job. 

Still, you'd like to think someone with a track record as strong as Jaramillo's could be of great benefit to the Mets.

LIVEBLOGGING - ALDS Game 3 - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. Boston Red Sox

Thanks MLB, for scheduling this 3rd game between the Angels and Red Sox at 9 in the fucking morning on a friggin Sunday. 

Well, as long as I'm barely awake for this game, mind as well liveblog what will hopefully be a 3-game sweep of the Red Sox at the hands of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. It's funny, whenever I WRITE about the Angels, I always refer to them by the proper name. But when TALKING about them, they're usually the Anaheim Angels, or just the Angels. No one really says "Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim" in the real world unless they're working in the media or something.

Game 3 pits Clay Buchholz (7-4, 4.21 ERA) against Scott Kazmir (10-9, 4.89 ERA), and it's an absolute must-win game for Boston or they're eliminated. And what a wonderful thing that would be! Still, it ain't over till it's over...

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(All times Pacific)

Top of 1st Inning:

9:10am: Chone Figgins leads off. He has a .214 BA in the postseason against Boston. I was not aware that Figgins was that poor against Boston.

9:12am: TBS announcers Don Orsillo and Buck Martinez make a point to note that all of the Angels players in the dugout are paying great attention to Buchholz's pitching motion since they haven't seen him in live game action since July 2008.

9:13am: Chone Figgins flies out to LF Jason Bay. 1 out.

9:14am: Bobby Abreu rips a 2-1 fastball back up the middle just past the glove of Buchholz for a single. 

9:16am: Bobby Abreu draws a pickoff throw at 1B which gets past Kevin Youkilis. First base coach Alfredo Griffin doesn't want Abreu to take 2nd base but Bobby ignores the advice of his coach. Youkilis retrieves the ball, throws down to 2nd but that gets past 2B Dustin Pedroia but it's backed up properly by SS Alex Gonzalez. An error is rightfully charged to 1B Kevin Youkilis on the play. 

9:18am: Torii Hunter flies out to CF Jacoby Ellsbury. 2 away.

9:20am: Vladimir Guerrero is down 1-2 in the count, and TBS' pitchtracker shows that all 3 pitches were out of the strike zone. A testament to Vladdy's free-swinging habits. Vlad swings at another inside pitch which saws his bat into pieces, but the ball goes foul.

9:22am: Vlad hits a tame shot that lands in front of 2B Dustin Pedroia. He snags it, throws to first for the out. 4-3. 3 outs.

Bottom of 1st Inning:

9:27am: Jacoby Ellsbury flies out to LF Juan Rivera. 1 out.

9:28am: Dustin Pedroia has some great numbers against Scott Kazmir, hitting .517 against him for his career. He's Kazmir's biggest pain in the rear.

9:29am: No worries. Pedroia chops a ball right to 3B Chone Figgins who makes the throw to 1B Kendry Morales for the out. 2 away.

9:30am: Victor Martinez skies out to RF Bobby Abreu. 3 up, 3 down. 

Top of 2nd Inning:

9:34am: Kendry Morales grounds out to 2B Dustin Pedroia. 4-3. 1 out.

9:35am: Juan Rivera lines the first pitch he sees from Buchholz back at him up the middle and into centerfield for a single.

9:37am: Maicer Izturis strikes out swinging at a 1-2 inside curveball, but Juan Rivera steals 2nd on the pitch. Victor Martinez' throw is wide of 2nd, and even if it was on the money, Rivera got a very good jump on the pitch and steals 2nd successfully. What's amazing is that Rivera hadn't stolen a base the entire regular season. 2 outs.

9:39am: On a 3-2 count, Mike Napoli is hit on the hand by an inside pitch. Catcher Victor Martinez believes it hit the knob of the bat, not the hand. Red Sox manager Terry Francona tries to back up his catcher but home plate umpire Eric Cooper disagrees. Replays show it may have hit both knob and hand. Hard to tell. Mike Napoli takes first base.

9:43am: Erick Aybar grounds out to 2B Dustin Pedroia, who throws onto Clay Buchholz covering at 1B. 4-1. 3 outs.

Bottom of 2nd Inning: 

9:49am: Kevin Youkilis just misses a homerun into the Green Monster by a couple of feet. He then strikes out looking at a 3-2 pitch that he feels was high in the zone. 1 out.

9:52am: Jason Bay walks.

9:54am: David Ortiz flies out to LF Juan Rivera. 2 outs.

9:57am: Mike Lowell flies out to CF Torii Hunter. 3 outs.

Top of 3rd Inning:

10:01am: Chone Figgins grounds out to 2B Dustin Pedroia. 4-3. 1 out.

10:02am: Red Sox alumnus Dave Henderson threw out the first pitch of today's game. Henderson hit a go-ahead 2-run HR in Game 5 of the 1986 ALCS off of Donnie Moore in the 9th inning which put the Red Sox ahead in that game which they would ultimately win in extra innings thanks to a Dave Henderson sac fly. Boston went on to win that series in 7 games and face the Mets in the '86 World Series.

10:03am: Bobby Abreu flies out to Jacoby Ellsbury in right-centerfield, and he makes a spectacular diving catch to rob Abreu of a hit. 2 outs.

10:05am: Torii Hunter skies out to LF Jason Bay. 3 up, 3 down.

Bottom of 3rd Inning:

10:09am: J.D. Drew flies out to LF Juan Rivera who is practically kissing the Green Monster when he catches the ball directly against the wall. 1 out.

10:12am: Alex Gonzalez walks. 

10:13am: Jacoby Ellsbury shoots a single into LF for a base hit. Gonzalez to 2nd on the hit. Runners on 1st and 2nd.

10:15am: Dustin Pedroia crushes a shot off the Green Monster wall in centerfield that is fielded by CF Torii Hunter. Gonzalez scores easily, and a throw to the plate is just a bit late to nail Ellsbury. 2 runs score. Boston takes a 2-0 lead off a Dustin Pedroia double. Pedroia continues to have Kazmir's number.

10:17am: Victor Martinez strokes a liner into LF that bounces in front of the Green Monster wall for a single. Juan Rivera fields it and throws the ball back in to stop Martinez at 1st base. The single scores Dustin Pedroia easily and puts Boston ahead 3-0. 

10:19am: Kevin Youkilis lines out to CF Torii Hunter. 2 outs. Kazmir is starting to get hit hard, even when outs are made.

10:20am: Jason Bay flies out to LF Juan Rivera who makes a running catch moving towards centerfield. 3 outs. 

Top of 4th Inning:

10:24am: Vladimir Guerrero grounds out meekly to SS Alex Gonzalez. 6-3. 1 out.

10:25am: Kendry Morales goes BOOM! He crushes a solo blast into the RF bleachers. Angels get a run on the board and cut the lead by 1. 3-1 Sox. A fan throws the home run ball back on the field. I'll never understand that concept. Don't these douchebags know that the homer still counts and you're out a souvenir now? I'm pretty sure that stupidity started in the bleachers of Wrigley Field.

10:28am: On a full count, Juan Rivera grounds out to Mike Lowell. 5-3. 2 outs.

10:29am: Maicer Izturis skies a first pitch into short centerfield where it's caught by SS Alex Gonzalez. 3 outs.

Bottom of 4th Inning:

10:32am: David Ortiz skies a first pitch from Kazmir into leftfield where Juan Rivera makes the catch. 1 out.

10:34am: Mike Lowell bangs a 3-1 pitch off the Green Monster for a long single. Kazmir continues to get hit hard.

10:36am: J.D. Drew crushes a shot over the centerfield fence which hits the post of the centerfield camera's porch and bounces back on the field of play. The Angels play the ball as if it's still in play until it's clear from 2B umpire Joe West  that it's a home run. No doubt about it either. It's the first homer by Boston in the series and they go up by a score of 5-1.

10:38am: Alex Gonzalez flies out to 2B Maicer Izturis. 2 outs.

10:39am: Jason Bulger is warming up in the bullpen for the Angels. Jacoby Ellsbury grounds back to Scott Kazmir. 1-3. 3 outs. This ain't Kazmir's day. Scioscia should pull him at this point before the game gets out of reach.

Top of 5th Inning:

10:43am: Mike Napoli rips a 3-2 pitch down the leftfield line for a leadoff double. The ball takes a carom off the leftfield foul wall and shoots at an odd angle the opposite direction of LF Jason Bay. But Napoli isn't a speed demon so he'll settle for the double. 

10:47am: Erick Aybar watches an 0-2 fastball go right by him for strike 3. 1 out.

10:48am: Chone Figgins is up, and he's not having a good series thus far as he's 0-for-10. Will this AB change things?

10:49am: Chone Figgins watches a very nice breaking ball go right by him for strike 3. Figgins isn't happy. I'm not sure if he's unhappy with the call, or with himself. But that was most definitely a strike. 2 outs.

10:51am: Bobby Abreu is up, and if anyone can drive home Napoli, it should be Bobby. He leads the Angels with a .351 BA with RISP.

10:52am: Bobby Abreu flies out to CF Jacoby Ellsbury. 3 outs.

Bottom of 5th Inning:

10:55am: Scott Kazmir is still pitching for the Angels, and I can only hope the leash is short on him at this point. I know the Angels bullpen isn't the best, but Kazmir can't continue to pitch like this. Jason Bulger is back up in the bullpen warming.

10:57am: Kazmir's nemesis Dustin Pedroia grounds a chopper up the middle but it's fielded cleanly by SS Erick Aybar. 6-3. 1 out.

10:59am: Victor Martinez flies out to RF Bobby Abreu. 2 outs.

11:00am: Mike Lowell flies out to CF Torii Hunter. 3 outs.

Top of 6th Inning:

11:02am: Torii Hunter tries to get on base with a bunt on the first pitch towards third base but it goes foul. The Angels are desperate to get something started now before the Red Sox bullpen comes in soon.

11:03am: Torii Hunter strokes an 0-2 pitch into LF that gets to the wall for a leadoff double. Jason Bay bobbles the ball in LF but it would've been a double either way. Sure beats a bunt single. 

11:04am: Clay Buchholz bluffs a pickoff throw to 2nd base sending Torii Hunter flying back into 2nd base but no one was covering the bag. Hunter may have hurt himself in the process, or just knocked the wind out of himself as he hit the ground hard.

11:05am: Torii Hunter breaks for 3rd base and would be caught stealing except that Buchholz clearly balks, so Torii is on 3rd base without a problem.

11:06am: A curveball gets away from Buchholz that nearly hits Vlad in the head. On the next pitch, Vlad hits a grounder to 3B Mike Lowell who knocks it down but the ball trickles towards SS Alex Gonzalez. Torii Hunter is frozen in between third base and home, as he can't see where the ball is, so he plays it safe and returns to 3rd base. It's scored an infield single for Vlad. Buck Martinez feels Torii Hunter made a baserunning mistake there by not scoring, but I doubt Torii Hunter could see whether the ball was retrievable or not from his angle. 

11:08am: A pitching conference takes place on the mound since Vlad is distracting Clay Buchholz a bit at first base, but he really shouldn't be too concerned with him, a message which Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell conveys. 

11:10am: Kendry Morales walks on 4 straight pitches to load the bases with 0 outs, and that's it for Clay Buchholz as manager Terry Francona is ready with the hook. Flamethrower Daniel Bard is coming in to pitch in relief for Buchholz. Clay walks off the mound to a nice ovation from the Boston fans.

11:13am: Juan Rivera is up with the bases loaded. The Angels did not hit any grand slams during the 2009 regular season. This would be a phenomenal time to see one launched over the Monster.

11:14am: TBS announcers Don Orsillo and Buck Martinez note that the hitters are going to have a little trouble picking up the baseball from the pitchers because the home plate area is now in the shade whereas the rest of the field is still in sunshine. 

11:16am: On a 3-2 count, Juan Rivera grounds into a 5-4-3 double play. Torii Hunter scores the run which the Red Sox are all too happy to take in exchange for the 2 outs. Vlad moves to 3rd base on the play. Sox up 5-2.

11:18am: Maicer Izturis flies out to SS Alex Gonzalez in short leftfield. 3 outs. That was not the big inning I was hoping for out of the Angels. 1 run is nice, 4 would've been nicer.

Bottom of 6th Inning:

11:20am: Scott Kazmir still pitching for the Angels, although the 5th inning made me feel a tad better about him. Just a tad.

11:21am: Jason Bay flies out to RF Bobby Abreu. 1 out.

11:22am: With "the shift" on, David Ortiz grounds out to SS Erick Aybar. 6-3. 2 outs. Like Chone Figgins, David Ortiz is also hitless in the series.

11:24am: Mike Lowell takes a walk on a 3-2 count. The last two pitches were not even close to the plate.

11:25am: J.D. Drew grounds out hard to 1B Kendry Morales who takes the ball to first himself. 3 outs.

Top of 7th Inning:

11:29am: Mike Napoli strikes out swinging at a Daniel Bard slider. 1 out.

11:30am: Lefty Billy Wagner is warming up tin the Boston bullpen. So is closer Jonathan Papelbon.

11:31am: Daniel Bard goes up 3-0 on Erick Aybar before getting 2 strikes. Aybar then fouls off 2 pitches.

11:32am: Erick Aybar grounds out to 1B Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis tosses to Daniel Bard covering at first. 3-1. 2 outs.

11:35am: Chone Figgins strikes out looking at a slider. Figgy's got no one to blame but himself. 3 outs.

Bottom of 7th Inning:

11:40am: Jason Bulger is pitching in relief of Scott Kazmir.

11:42am: Alex Gonzalez grounds out to 3B Chone Figgins. 5-3. 1 out.

11:43am: Jacoby Ellsbury chops a ball back to 1B Kendry Morales who steps on first for the 2nd out.

11:44am: Jason Bulger walks Dustin Pedroia despite getting ahead of him in the count 1-2.

11:46am: Matt Palmer is warming up in the Angels bullpen. Bulger falls behind Victor Martinez 2-0, so catcher Mike Napoli takes a quick trip to the mound for a chat.

11:49am: Victor Martinez strikes out swinging at ball 4. 3 outs.

Top of 8th Inning:

11:53am: Billy Wagner is pitching in relief of Daniel Bard. He'll face lefty Bobby Abreu before righties Torii Hunter and Vlad Guerrero.

11:54am: Bobby Abreu chops one down the first base line that stays fair and 1B Kevin Youkilis kicks into the photographer's well which allows Abreu 2nd base. Somehow that is scored a ground-rule double. Wow. That's a 2-base error by any normal measure.

11:55am: 1B Greg Gibson somehow believes that Torii Hunter swung on a bunt attempt. A total bullshit call which upsets Hunter, and now the Boston crowd is mockingly chanting "Toriiiii, Toriiii."

11:56am: Jonathan Papelbon is now warming up again in the Boston bullpen. He may have to get 5-6 outs in a save.

11:57am: Torii Hunter watches a strike 3 fastball go right down Broadway to the delight of the Boston crowd. 1 out.

11:58am: This would be a fine time for Vladdy to pop one over the Monster, but Wagner looks to be in the zone right now. Unfortunately, Vlad is lifetime 0-for-5 against Wags.

12:00pm: Billy Wagner walks Vlad Guerrero after a full count. Everyone is shocked that Vlad didn't swing.  Boston pitching coach John Farrell has a conference on the mound with Billy Wagner and Victor Martinez, since they'll be facing Kendry Morales, who hit a solo blast earlier. However, the switch-hitting Morales is now batting from the right side, his weaker side.

12:02pm: Kendry Morales hits a hard shot towards the right side hole but it's knocked down by 2B Dustin Pedroia. He stops the ball, picks it up and throws to first base to get Morales for the 2nd out. Hunter and Guerrero advance 90 feet.

12:03pm: That's it for Billy Wagner as it's time for Jonathan Papelbon. He'll be facing Juan Rivera here. Considering Juan Rivera's series thus far, this would be a nice time for home run redemption. Unfortunately, the odds aren't in his favor. He's 0-for-8 lifetime against Papelbon with 1BB and 3K.

12:06pm: Rivera lines the first pitch fastball from Papelbon into right-centerfield for a 2-run single. Finally! Clutch Rivera! The Angels cut the lead down and it's 5-4 Red Sox. Juan Rivera is being pinch-run for by Reggie Willits, who will take over in LF afterwards.

12:07pm: The 2 Angels runs are charged to Billy Wagner. A pickoff throw from Jonathan Papelbon nearly gets Reggie Willits at 1B.

12:08pm: On an 0-2 count, Reggie Willits' lead is way too far off of first base and Papelbon picks him off.  That may have been the end of the game for the Angels right there. Fuck. If Reggie Willits had been leaning anymore to his right, he would've been mistaken for Sean Hannity.

Top of 9th Inning:

12:12pm: Kevin Jepsen is pitching in relief for the Angels.

12:14pm: Kevin Youkilis hits a hard shot back up the middle which is fielded and bobbled by SS Erick Aybar, but he manages to still make a hard throw to first to get Youkilis. 1 out.

12:16pm: Jepsen gets Jason Bay to strike out looking at a fastball down Broadway on a full count. 2 outs.

12:17pm: David Ortiz hits a rocket up the middle into centerfield for a single. I imagine Ortiz will be taken out for a pinch-runner. 

12:18pm: Joey Gathright is in to pinch-run for Ortiz. 

12:20pm: With Mike Lowell batting and Joey Gathright running, the Angels correctly pitch out but Napoli's throw is off to the shortstop side of the bag. Aybar can't come up with it but knocks it down. Gathright steals 2nd successfully.

12:21pm: Mike Lowell shoots the ball down the 1st base line into rightfield for a single which easily scores Joey Gathright from 2nd base to give Boston an insurance run and go up 6-4.

12:24pm: Mike Scioscia goes to the bullpen for lefty Darren Oliver, who is pitching in his third straight game. He'll be facing lefty J.D. Drew in this spot. Brian Anderson is now pinch-running for Mike Lowell.

12:26pm: J.D. Drew lines out to LF Reggie Willits. 3 outs. Last chance for the Halos.

Top of 9th Inning:

12:30pm: Kevin Youkilis moves over to 3B, Casey Kotchmann is now playing 1B.

12:31pm: Maicer Izturis pops one up behind the plate. Catcher Victor Martinez makes the catch despite a dopey Boston fan almost screwing it up.  1 out.

12:32pm: Switch-hitter Gary Matthews Jr. is in to pinch-hit for Mike Napoli. Matthews is batting lefty against the right-handed Papelbon.

12:33pm: Gary Matthews Jr. flies out to CF Jacoby Ellsbury. 2 outs.

12:34pm: Erick Aybar lines an 0-2 fastball into centerfield for a single.

12:35pm: The tying run comes to the plate. Unfortunately it's the non-hitting zero-power Chone Figgins who doesn't hit Papelbon at all. Erick Aybar takes 2nd base uncontested on ball 1 to Figgins. Figgy's best hope is to work out a walk here. Patience will hopefully pay off.

12:37pm: Papelbon falls behind Figgins 3-0 before throwing a strike. If I'm Figgins, I'm keeping the bat on my shoulder and hoping Abreu can come through. Figgins does so, now a 3-2 full count.

12:38pm: Everyone in Fenway is standing. Figgins fouls off the next pitch before a high ball 4 allows him 1st base. First time Figgins has reached base in this ALDS.  Boston Pitching Coach John Farrell has a Boston conference on the mound with the entire Sox infield. Bobby Abreu is definitely the guy you want up in this spot for the Halos, although he's only 1 for 7 lifetime against Papelbon with 5 BB and 2 K.

12:40pm: Angels' closer Brian Fuentes is warming up just in case.

12:42pm: Abreu falls behind 1-2, fouling off a couple. I have to stand up now for fear of destroying anything in case Abreu doesn't come through.

12:43pm: Bobby Abreu lines a shot off the Green Monster for a double that scores Erick Aybar easily but Chone Figgins can't make it home. Jason Bay airmails the ball into the infield with no target and the Sox infield scrambles for the ball. BAH! Figgins would've scored on that had he kept going, but you can't blame him for stopping at 3rd as a reasonable throw would've gotten him at home, instead of the garbage that Jason Bay threw. Angels cut it to 6-5.

12:45pm: Torii Hunter is up but he's getting the intentional pass here so Papelbon can pitch to Mr. Free-Swinger, Vladimir Guerrero. Vlad is 2 for 12 lifetime against Papelbon with a walk and 3 K's. I think all fans on both sides of this game are shitting their pants.

12:46pm: BIG DADDY VLADDY COMES THROUGH! He belts a first-pitch fastball into centerfield for a 2-run single that scores Figgins and Abreu to give the Angels a 7-6 lead!!!!!!! I'M GOING CRAZY!!!!

12:48pm: That's all for Papelbon, who has proven to be all too human in this game. His first earned runs given up in the postseason. Terry Francona goes to lefty reliever Hideki Okajima.

12:49pm: Kendry Morales skies out to LF Jason Bay. 3 outs. Can Angels closer Brian Fuentes get the save here and the SWEEEEEP?!

Bottom of 9th Inning:

12:52pm: Brian Fuentes comes in to pitch for the Angels. Jeff Mathis replaces Mike Napoli behind the plate for L.A. Jed Lowrie is in to pinch-hit for Alex Gonzalez. 

12:55pm: Jed Lowrie flies out to shallow CF. Torii Hunter makes the catch. 1 out.

12:57pm: Jacoby Ellsbury foul pops out to Catcher Jeff Mathis on the third base side of the plate. 2 outs.

12:59pm: Dustin Pedroia hits a short fly to shallow leftfield which is caught by SS Erick Aybar! 3 outs. THE ANGELS WIN 7-6!!!! WHAT A FUCKING COMEBACK!!!!! AWESOMENESS!!!!

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The Angels finally shake the postseason monkey that is the Boston Red Sox by having a 2-out rally of their own without the power of the all-powerful rally monkey.

Bring on the winners of the Yankees-Twins series, baby! (yes, likely the Yankees, so come the fuck on Skanks! You will loooooooooose to the mighty mighty Angels!)

This was the most upside-down series I can remember in a long while. The starting pitcher was supposed to strongly favor Boston, but for the first 2 games, it strongly favored the Angels. The bullpen was supposed to strongly favor Boston, but it was the Angels bullpen that ultimately came through in the series. The offense was supposed to slightly favor the Red Sox, but it was the Angels that capitalized with big hits of their own. Scott Kazmir was supposed to be dominant in Fenway, certainly moreso than Clay Buchholz. But the reality was just the opposite.

And to boot, I've never been so happy to be wrong about a prediction. Well, I probably have been, considering I thought the San Jose Sharks would beat the Anaheim Ducks in last year's postseason, but this one is even bigger considering the Angels-Red Sox history. I thought the Red Sox would be taking this series in 4 games, but for the Angels to SWEEP? And I don't think anyone predicted a sweep by Anaheim. 4 or 5 games, maybe. But a sweep?

ZOMG FANTABULOUS!

Angels win Game 2 of the ALDS over the Boston Red Sox

Watching the Angels on TV dominate the Boston Red Sox by a final score of 5-0 was something to behold. John Lackey pitching 7.1 IP of shutout ball against the potent Red Sox offense.  Torii Hunter was the hero of the game with a 3-run BOMB off of Jon Lester into the centerfield rockpile which would end up being all the offense the Angels needed to win the game, though they managed to tack on another 2 runs off reliever Takashi Saito in the bottom of the 7th. Darren Oliver pitched the final 1.2 IP to loooock it up for the Halos.

But watching Game 2 at Angel Stadium, with 40,000+ fans, with not nearly as many Boston fans as you'd think (maybe because they were a lot quieter?) was an awesome experience.

• We had a fantastic pitcher's duel between one of the best postseason pitchers of the decade in Josh Beckett, and Jered Weaver, a solid #2-#3 pitcher in the Angels rotation who managed to keep Boston at bay the entire game.

• Boston struck first in the 4th inning when Jacoby Ellsbury led off the inning with a triple to deep centerfield, one of the few balls that Torii Hunter could not track down. 2 batters later, Victor Martinez singled him home. That was all the runs the Red Sox would muster.

ALDSAngelsSox_2

• The Angels struck back in the bottom of the 4th when Bobby Abreu got to 1st with a leadoff single. Torii Hunter then hit a bullet towards the left side but it was caught by a diving Mike Lowell, making a fantastic play.

ALDSAngelsSox_3

• The next batter, Vladimir Guerrero singled to rightfield while Abreu took off for 2nd, allowing the Angels to do what they do best. Run from first to third. Angels slugger Kendry Morales was next at the plate, hitting a line shot to J.D. Drew in rightfield, far enough for Bobby Abreu to tag up from 3rd and tie the game at 1.

• Weaver and Beckett continued to duel, with Beckett's pitch count more efficient, but Weaver was matching him on overall results. Weaver only gave up 2 hits in the entire game, both in the 4th inning. The only other baserunners allowed by Weaver were 2 scattered inconsequential walks to J.D. Drew and Jason Bay.

• The Angels finally chipped away at Josh Beckett in the bottom of the 7th when Vladimir Guerrero took, of all things, a leadoff walk on 5 pitches to start the inning. In a key managerial decision, Angels skip Mike Scioscia chose to pinch-run for his cleanup-hitting DH with Howie Kendrick, as the Angels had yet to run the bases on Jason Varitek as had been rumored to occur any time he was catching. It's a decision that paid off in spades. Kendrick successfully stole 2nd base after the first out had been made by Kendry Morales flying out to centerfield

• Juan Rivera couldn't get Kendrick home though, as he then grounded out to 3B Mike Lowell. Next batter Maicer Izturis, a .370 career BA against Josh Beckett, and a .327 hitter with runners in scoring position, got the job done. Mighty Maicer hit a shot up the middle into shallow centerfield that scored Howie Kendrick to give the Angels the 2-1 lead.

• But the Angels weren't done. Izturis then stole 2nd base, easily beating the throw from Varitek. Mike Napoli would get hit in the shoulder by a Josh Beckett pitch and took 1st base. Beckett thought Napoli didn't make an effort to get out of the way, but home plate CB Bucknor felt otherwise.

• By the way, as horrible as his Boston-screwing calls were at first base in Game 1, CB Bucknor didn't have any major problems behind the plate, giving all pitchers a consistent and somewhat liberal strike zone.

• With Izturis on 2nd, and Napoli on 1st, and still 2 out, Erick Aybar came to the plate. This would've probably been the time for Boston manager Terry Francona to go to the bullpen, but he stuck with Josh Beckett one batter too many. Erick Aybar launched a shot into deep centerfield for a triple, scoring Izturis and Napoli and giving the Angels the 4-1 lead.

ALDSAngelsSox_4

• At this point in the game, Terry Francona had seen enough from Josh Beckett and brought in ex-Met closer Billy Wagner to stop the Angels' rally. He did so, getting Chone Figgins turned around to bat righty, striking him out.

• Despite a pitch count over 100, Jered Weaver came out for the 8th inning, promptly striking out J.D. Drew before it was time for his standing ovation from the Angels fans. Mike Scioscia went to the bullpen, bringing in lefty Darren Oliver for his 2nd straight game. Oliver struck out pinch-hitter Jed Lowrie but gave up a single to Jacoby Ellsbury.

ALDSAngelsSox_5

• Scioscia went to the pen again, this time to righty Kevin Jepsen to face Dustin Pedroia. Jepsen induced a weak chopper short of the mound on the third base side. Jepsen made a nice fielding play and threw out Pedroia to end the 8th inning.

• Billy Wagner began the 8th inning for Boston by giving up a leadoff single to Bobby Abreu, and Tito had to keep the Angels from getting going again. So he brought in closer Jonathan Papelbon to stop things. Torii Hunter flied out to Ellsbury in CF. The Sox then pitched out first pitch to Howie Kendrick, throwing out Bobby Abreu trying to take 2nd base. Kendrick then struck out and we moved to the bottom of the 9th.

• Jepsen remained in the game to start the bottom of the 9th with the Angels' 3-run lead intact. Victor Martinez led off by flying out to Torii Hunter in centerfield for the first out. Kevin Youkilis hit a double into the left-centerfield gap, and then it was time for Angels' manager Mike Scioscia to bring in closer Brian Fuentes to face lefty David Ortiz.

• Though Fuentes has been very shaky this season despite a MLB-leading 48 saves, he's at his best when facing lefty hitters. Ortiz lined out to LF Juan Rivera for the 2nd out. Fuentes got ahead of Jason Bay on a 1-2 count before losing him to a walk With runners on 1st and 2nd, the tying run came up to the plate in the form of Mike Lowell.

ALDSAngelsSox_7

• With fans of both teams on edge, Mike Lowell hit a flyball to deep centerfield, but not deep enough. Torii Hunter caught it with ease and the Angels won Game 2 of the ALDS by a final score of 4-1. Just another Halo victory!

Interesting stats about the Angels and the Red Sox:

This was Josh Beckett's first postseason loss since Game 3 of the 2003 World Series against the New York Yankees.

Through the first two games, the Angels' starters have given up a total of 1 earned run on 6 hits with a 0.61 ERA. The scary Angels bullpen? A 0.00 ERA.

If there's any team capable of coming back in the postseason, it's Boston. They were on the winning side of the 2004 ALCS against the New York Yankees (aka: the biggest collapse in baseball history) when they came back from a 3-0 deficit to win 4 straight games and win the ALCS before sweeping the Cardinals in the 2004 World Series. The Red Sox were also down 3 games to 1 against the Cleveland Indians in the 2007 ALCS before taking the next 3 of that series and then sweeping the Colorado Rockies in the 2007 World Series.

Boston has also been down 2-0 in the ALDS 4 times before. And twice, they came back to win 3-2. They did so against the Cleveland Indians in 1999, and the Oakland A's in 2003. The other two times? They were swept in 3 games by the Chicago White Sox in 2005, and the Cleveland Indians in 1995.

The odds still do heavily favor the Angels at this point though. Since the current playoff format was implemented in 1995, teams going up 2-0 in the Division Series have won it 31 of 35 times.

These were the first two consecutive postseason wins for the Halos since Games 2 and 3 of the 2005 ALDS against the Yankees.

So now the series shifts to Boston on Sunday morning at 9am Pacific / 12pm Eastern in one of those "WHO THE FUCK SCHEDULED THIS GAME TO BE SO EARLY?" questions that only MLB could make happen. The Angels will be in a position to sweep the Sox in Fenway, and each game is an absolute must-win elimination game for Boston.

Considering the Angels already faced the best starters on Boston's staff in the first two games, the advantage should shift even moreso to the Angels with Scott Kazmir starting against Clay Buchholz. 

Buchholz has looked stellar for Boston during the regular season except for the last two starts of the season in which he got destroyed by both Toronto and Cleveland.  Buchholz has never pitched in the postseason.

Since coming to the Angels just prior to the August 31 trade deadline, Scott Kazmir has posted a 1.73 ERA in 6 starts for the Angels, going 2-2 with the club. He went 10-9 on the year with a 4.89 ERA, although he was pitching injured for much of 2009 and spent some time on the DL as well.

More importantly, Kazmir has been very successful throughout his career pitching against Boston. During the regular season, he has an 8-7 record with a 3.59 ERA over 130.1 IP in 23 starts. His career record at Fenway Park is equally impressive, going 6-4 with a 3.05 ERA over 73.2 IP in 13 starts.

In the 2008 ALCS against Boston while pitching with Tampa, Kazmir made 2 starts against the Red Sox. The first in Game 2 at Tropicana Field did not go so well, as he gave up 5 earned runs in 4.1IP, 2 of them solo homers by Dustin Pedroia, and another solo blast by Kevin Youkilis.  However, opponent Josh Beckett also lasted just 4.1 IP, and he gave up 8 earned runs in that game. Neither Beckett nor Kazmir were involved in the decision in that game which was won by Tampa in 11 innings by a final score of 9-8.

Kazmir's 2nd start in the 2008 ALCS went a lot better as he pitched Game 5 in Fenway Park. Kazmir pitched 6 innings of shutout ball on 2 hits, 3 walks and 7 strikeouts. Tampa's bullpen blew that game and the Rays lost by a final of 8-7. Kazmir did not get the decision but was in line for the win until he left the game.

If the first two games of this 2009 ALDS favored Boston because of the starting pitching which didn't pan out, then Game 3 of the series certainly favors the Angels if Kazmir can outduel Buchholz and whoever else Francona throws out there, as all hands will be on deck for the Boston pitching staff for the remainder of this series.

Here's hoping that Kazmir does so, sweeps the Red Sox, and the Angels move onto the ALCS to likely face the New York Yankees.

The history of the Angels' rally monkey

A nice article from the NYTimes on the history, and effects of the Rally Monkey.

FEAR HIM!!!!

2009 MLB Playoff Predictions - ALDS and NLDS

It's the most...wonderful tiiiiime of the year!!!!

October baseball baby, and while the Mets ain't in it, the Angels are. So, there's some joy in Mudville.

The 8 teams are set for the Division Series, so imma gonna break it down...

AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES:

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins

Yo Kanye, imma let you finish, but the Twins are playing Game 1 of the ALDS less than 24 hours after winning the greatest tiebreaker game of all time. OF ALL TIME!!!! Their bullpen is certainly going to be tired, even if the players say they're ready to play after celebrating the AL Central win.

The Twins went 0-7 against the Yankees during the regular season, AND they're likely going to be worn down. Since 2002, the Twins have gone 3-22 when playing in Yankee Stadium. 2-2 in postseason games there. The odds don't look good for Minnesota. The one positive? The 18-4 streak they're riding into the playoffs.

Sure, they might feel better and rejuvenated by Game 2, but in a short series, that could be too late. Add to that the Yankees have Sabathia, Burnett, and the postseason-experienced Andy Pettite in the short series against a relatively unimpressive Twins rotation of Brian Duensing, Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker. And then there's that Mariano Rivera, who is still just as unstoppable as he's ever been. Twins closer Joe Nathan has not fared nearly as well against the Yankees over his career.

When these two teams have met in the ALDS before in 2003 and 2004, the Yankees won both series in 4 games.

It won't take them that long this time around.

My prediction: Yankees in 3 games.

AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES:

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. Boston Red Sox

These teams have met in the postseason 4 times so far. 1986, 2004, 2007, 2008. Boston won all of them, and in the last 3 ALDS, the Angels only won one game against Boston. History is certainly not on the side of the Angels.

The Angels have a very potent offense, but the Red Sox have even more potent pitching. The Angels' bullpen is not what it used to be in years past anchored by Frankie Rodriguez. It's not that Brian Fuentes isn't a competent closer, but he has been up and down all year, and the rest of that bullpen is even less reliable. The Angels' bullpen posted a 4.49 ERA during the regular season, the highest of the 4 AL teams in the postseason. 

Is this the year the Angels can finally shake the Boston monkey off their back with their own rally monkey? Unfortunately, as much as I want to see that happen, I don't think it will.

My prediction: Boston in 4 games.

NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies

A rematch of the 2007 NLDS between these two teams where the Rockies swept the Phillies in 3 games as they rode a September hot streak straight into the World Series. That is, until they faced Boston, and got swept in 4.

Colorado is once again riding a hot streak into the postseason, 

The defending 2008 World Series champions are not as good as they used to be, most notably in their bullpen. The once-perfect Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge has been anything but this season, saving 31 games while blowing 11. Phillies manager Charlie Manuel is probably going to have to play closer-by-committee/situation between Lidge and Ryan Madson. 

But even the Phillies starting pitching isn't as strong as it was a year ago. Jamie Moyer is injured and out for the postseason. Pedro Martinez is questionable, Cole Hamels regressed this year. The Phillies are going to have rely on the pitching of Cliff Lee to get them through this postseason, although he's not looked good on the mound over the last two months, posting a 5.53 ERA in September-October.

The Phillies are going to have rely on their offense to get them past Colorado. Except the Rockies are quite underrated, with a postseason starting rotation of Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel and Jason Marquis if necessary. With Huston Street anchoring the Rockies' bullpen, the Rockies are a more well-balanced team for the postseason than the Phillies are.

Of course, anything can happen in these best-of-5's.

My prediction: Colorado in 4 games.

NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

This is an NLDS rematch of 2004, when the Cardinals won in 4 games. It was the Dodgers first postseason game victory since 1988. The Dodgers fared far better in the 2008 postseason, but not enough to get to the World Series.

It's often said that pitching and defense is what a team needs to win in the postseason. The St. Louis Cardinals not only have the pitching and defense, but the offense too, anchored by Albert Pujols.

The Cardinals have Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Joel Pineiro. The Dodgers have Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw and Vicente Padilla. The Cardinals' biggest weakness is in a 7-game series where they have to go to a 4th starter, and there's a significant dropoff in quality after their big 3. But that's not to worry about here.

The Dodgers have a superior bullpen to the Cardinals, with Jonathan Broxton and George Sherrill leading the charge. It's the best bullpen in the majors with a 3.14 bullpen ERA. They do have the depth after 6 innings, but can they defeat St. Louis' starting pitching? Manny Ramirez has had an abysmal September, and while other Dodgers like Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp have picked up the slack, they're going to need Manny to revert back to his postseason performance in 2008 where he hit .520 with 4 HRs in the NLDS and NLCS.

If the Dodgers are to survive against the Cardinals, the best shot they have is against St. Louis' iffy middle relief. 

My prediction: St. Louis in 5 games.

Which collapse was worse? 2007 Mets or 2009 Tigers?

Part 1 - Seven games up

2009 Tigers:

With a 7-game lead atop the AL Central on September 6, 2009, the Detroit Tigers were in the driver's seat with 26 games remaining in the regular season.

Over those 26 games, the Minnesota Twins went 18-8. The Detroit Tigers went 11-15. 7 of those 26 games were played between the two teams. Minnesota won 4 of them.

2007 Mets:

With a 7-game lead atop the NL East on September 12, 2007, the New York Mets were also in the driver's seat, with 17 games remaining in the regular season. 

Over those final 17 games, the Philadelphia Phillies went 13-4. The New York Mets went 5-12. 3 of those final 17 games were played between the two teams. Philadelphia swept the three games from the Mets at Shea Stadium.

While both the 2009 Detroit Tigers and the 2007 New York Mets had a 7-game lead in September over the team in 2nd place, the Mets blew those 7 games in a shorter amount of time. They tied for first with Philadelphia in just 14 games. They fell out of first place in the 15th game, tied for first again with Philadelphia on the 16th game, and lost the final game of the season while Philadelphia won theirs.

Part 1 Conclusion - The 2007 Mets' collapse was worse.

----------------------------------------------------

Part 2 - Final game of the season

2009 Tigers:

A tiebreaker game was forced when both the 2009 Twins and 2009 Tigers finished the regular season with a record of 86-76.

Game 163 of the regular season for each of the teams was won by the Minnesota Twins in 12 innings by a final score of 6-5, in what was a fantastic baseball game, and certainly the best "tiebreaker" game in baseball history.

The Detroit Tigers failed to hold the lead on 2 different occasions in the game

2007 Mets:

The Mets were tied for first place with the Phillies going into game 162 of the season, and would face the Florida Marlins. The Mets had gone 11-6 against Florida over the course of the season. 

The final game between the two teams on September 30, 2007 was basically won by Florida in the 1st inning of the game when the Fish scored 7 runs off Tom Glavine. The Mets only mustered 1 run during the entire game, and that was off a Dontrelle Willis wild pitch.

The Philadelphia Phillies beat the Washington Nationals by a final of 6-1, and won the NL East. 

Had the Mets been able to at least put up a fight in their final game the way the Tigers did in the AL Central tiebreaker game, perhaps this would be more even. Sometimes it's not that you lose, but how you lose. But the Mets dropped game 162 in such abysmal fashion against a team they usually beat, there can only be one conclusion here.

Part 2 Conclusion - The 2007 Mets' collapse was worse.

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Part 3 - The final four

2009 Tigers:

With 4 games to play and a 3-game lead over Minnesota, the Detroit Tigers went 1-3 over those final 4 games, losing one of them to the Twins.

The Minnesota Twins went 4-0 over those games, including a 3-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals in which they scored 28 runs to the Royals' 15. 

The Tigers completed their own collapse by losing the tiebreaker game against Minnesota.

2007 Mets: 

With 4 games to play in the season, the Mets were up by 1 game over Philadelphia. They went 1-3 over their final 4 games. Philadelphia went 3-1 over their final 4 games.

No team in MLB history has ever had lost a 3-game division lead in the final 4 games of the season. The loss of the tiebreaker game was the icing on the shit cake.

Part 3 Conclusion - The 2009 Tigers' collapse was worse.

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Part 4 - Expectations

2009 Tigers:

The 2008 Tigers finished 78-84, last place in the AL Central.

Because of their terrible finish that season, they were not expected to win the AL Central in 2009. The fact that they had been in 1st place so much of the season was a shock to many baseball fans and media alike.

2007 Mets:

The 2006 Mets were the defending NL East champions, and for the 5th consecutive season in 2007, led the NL in highest team salary payroll. The idea that this club would not at the very least make the playoffs,  did not even exist in the beginning of the season. That made the collapse that much tougher to stomach.

Part 4 Conclusion - The 2007 Mets' collapse was worse.

Final Conclusion - While both teams collapsed in their own "special ways," the 2007 Mets' collapse was worse.

One last point...

If you were one of the many Met fans who believed that Willie Randolph should have been fired as Mets manager after the 2007 season, then logically you HAVE to advocate that Jim Leyland be fired as manager of the Detroit Tigers.

2009 Major League Baseball Awards

The season is almost over, save for that 163rd game between the Detroit Tigers and the Minnesota Twins to determine the winner of the AL Central, but otherwise, it's time for the 2009 season awards.

American League MVP:

Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins. The only AL player with an OPS over 1.000. The Twins have played meaningful games all season long, much of that due to Mauer. The Twins have been able to weather the loss of Justin Morneau in September because of Mauer's production. Oh yeah, he also lead the AL in OBP and SLG, keeping low strikeout numbers. Mauer has had a phenomenal season, and the idea that other players (Teixeira, Jeter, Morales) should somehow be in the running for this award, is frankly ludicrous.

National League MVP: 

Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals. The ultimate no-brainer. Pujols is the best offensive player in baseball by a mile. No one else is even in the race here.

American League Cy Young Award:

Zack Greinke of the Kansas City Royals. This was the year that Zack Greinke arrived. He posted a 16-8 record on a team as bad as the Kansas City Royals, and posted a league-leading 2.16 ERA. Only Justin Verlander has had more strikeouts (269) over the course of the season compared to Greinke's 242. But Greinke gave up 9 fewer HRs, and his overall numbers are too fantastic to ignore. CC Sabathia ended up with 19-8 record but a much higher ERA of 3.37. The only other serious contender for this award, and perhaps he wins it in other seasons, was King Felix Hernandez of the Mariners. But Greinke's numbers were still superior.

National League Cy Young Award:

Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants. This is probably the award most worthy of debate, as you could easily make strong arguments for Adam Wainwright or Chris Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals. To me, Lincecum gets the nod because of the dominance in strikeouts, the 2nd-lowest ERA just behind Carpenter, and the 1.05 WHIP, also 2nd behind Carpenter. So if you're asking why not Chris Carpenter instead of Lincecum, it's the extremely low K numbers (144) and that Carpenter didn't reach the 200-innings mark. Wainwright is lauded because of his 19-8 record and very good numbers, but his other numbers don't compete with Lincecum.

American League Rookie of the Year:

Andrew Bailey of the Oakland A's. For all of the talk revolving around Rick Porcello of the Tigers, Jeff Niemann of the Tampa Bay Rays, Ricky Romero of the Toronto Blue Jays, and Gordon Beckham of the Chicago White Sox, the reality is that Bailey should get the award because of his dominance at a position not easy to dominate at. Porcello, Niemann and Romero are all very good rookie pitchers but none of them had ERAs below 3. Niemann's was the lowest at 3.94. That's not award-winning in my eyes. Gordon Beckham has posted decent numbers at 3B for the White Sox, but nothing mindblowing. 

What IS mindblowing, is that Andrew Bailey has been the unsung closer for the Oakland A's in his rookie year. He notched 26 saves while blowing only 4. More impressive is that his overall numbers matched Mariano Rivera, or even beat them. Bailey led all closers in strikeouts (91) and WHIP (0.88), and had the 2nd lowest ERA (1.84) behind Mo (1.76). It's extremely rare for rookies to have such impressive numbers in the closer role, which really should cement the award for Bailey. At least, if you're rational.

National League Rookie of the Year:
J.A. Happ of the Philadelphia Phillies. There's a lot of competition for this award in a relatively unspectacular year for National League rookies. Certainly players like Casey McGehee of the Brewers and Chris Coghlan of the Florida Marlins are in the conversation, but among starting pitchers, Happ came out of nowhere to post a 12-4 record with a 2.93 ERA for the Phillies. That's best among the Philadelphia rotation, including Cole Hamels.

American League Manager of the Year:

Mike Scioscia of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Angels could've had a very legitimate reason to fail this season. With the death of Nick Adenhart in early April, and the numerous injuries suffered to the team, had the 2009 Angels failed to win the AL West, it would've been excusable. But the Angels persevered, used Adenhart's death as motivation, and weathered the storm of injuries to the club to win their third consecutive AL West title. What's more is that so many players (except Jose Guillen) truly love playing for Scioscia. The idea that Joe Girardi deserves the award is kinda silly considering the talent the Yankees have.

National League Manager of the Year:
Jim Tracy of the Colorado Rockies. Under former manager Clint Hurdle, the Rockies went 18-28 and were already 14 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. They even were 12 games under .500 in early June. Once bench coach Jim Tracy took the reigns on May 29, the club went 74-42 and nearly unseated the Dodgers atop the NL West while holding off the San Francisco Giants. They still won the NL Wild Card, got in the postseason when no one predicted them to even compete this season.

LIVEBLOGGING - Game 2 of Doubleheader - New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 9-13-09

After losing the first game of the doubleheader earlier today by a final score of 5-4, the Mets look for a split of the doubleheader as well as a split of this 4-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies. This is the final game between the two teams of the season, which is likely why it was scheduled as ESPN's Sunday Night game. ESPN of course, can't be thrilled that this game has zero postseason implications, but that's what happens when you schedule certain things prior to the season.

Depending upon the result of this game, the Mets will have finished their season series against the Phillies with a final record of either 7-11, or 6-12.

Game 2 of the matchup pits Tim Redding (2-5) 5.78 ERA against Pedro Martinez (4-0) 3.64 ERA in 6 starts. Pedro's worst start of the season came on August 23 against the Mets in which he gave up 4 ER in 6 IP, but still got the W due to Philly's offense handing him a 9-7 victory.

What's been extremely impressive this season with Pedro is that he has only walked 4 batters in 29.2 IP. With 27 K over that timespan, Pedro has exceeded all reasonable expectations so far. But can his arm make it into October?

--------------------------------------------------------------------
(All times Pacific)

Top of 1st Inning:
5:09pm: Luis Castillo slaps a liner into left-center field for a leadoff single. ESPN announcers Joe Morgan, Jon Miller and Steve Phillips argue about the description of Castillo's hit. Is it a flare? A slap? A solid hit?

5:12pm: Cory Sullivan flies out to CF Shane Victorino. Castillo cannot advance. 1 out.

5:14pm: David Wright strikes out swinging at a high and outside fastball. 2 outs.

5:15pm: Steve Phillips points out what most rational people already know. No team could survive the number of injuries the Mets have had to their major players (Reyes, Beltran, Delgado) and still compete. Of the big 3 injuries, only Beltran has returned, and it's too late. Many other players have also gone down with injury as we well know (ie: Johan Santana, Alex Cora, Oliver Perez, Fernando Nieve, Jonathon Niese, etc.)

5:16pm: Carlos Beltran walks. Luis Castillo moves to 2nd base.

5:19pm: Daniel Murphy strikes out swinging at a wicked curveball from Pedro Martinez. 3 outs.

Bottom of 1st Inning:
5:23pm: Tim Redding gives up a leadoff walk to Jimmy Rollins on a 3-1 count.

5:25pm: Shane Victorino lines a single into leftfield. Jimmy Rollins moves to 2nd base on the hit.

5:30pm: Chase Utley smashes a long flyball off the top of the LF wall just beyond the reach of Fernando Tatis for a long long single since Jimmy Rollins thought the ball might be caught by Tatis and held up at 2nd base before scoring. Carlos Beltran retrieved the ball in left-center. Shane Victorino moves up to 2nd base on the play. 1-0 Phillies.

5:33pm: Ryan Howard hits a soft liner right at 2B Luis Castillo for the out. Castillo shuffles the ball to Anderson Hernandez at 2nd base hoping to double off Shane Victorino but he's back safe. 1 out.

5:36pm: Raul Ibanez hits a high flyball to CF Carlos Beltran. 2 outs.

5:41pm: Jayson Werth strikes out swinging at a 3-2 curveball and Tim Redding escapes the jam giving up only 1 earned run, although it took him 33 pitches to get through the inning. 3 outs.

Top of 2nd Inning:
5:44pm: Fernando Tatis never took the bat off his shoulder in this AB, watching 5 pitches go by, 3 of them for strikes. 1 out.

5:45pm: Brian Schneider ropes a first-pitch into rightfield for a single.

5:46pm: ESPN cameras are showing Tatis in the Mets tunnel with trainer Ray Ramirez checking out his left hand/arm which he may have injured in the 1st inning when he leaped into the wall on Utley's long single that just missed clearing the fence. He may be out for the rest of the game.

5:47pm: Anderson Hernandez lines a single past 1B Ryan Howard into rightfield. Brian Schneider makes it to 3rd base on the hit.

5:48pm: Tim Redding lays down a sac bunt to the 1st base side of the diamond. The ball is fielded by Pedro Martinez who throws down to Chase Utley covering 1st base for the out. 1-4. 2 outs. Anderson Hernandez moves to 2nd base on the sac bunt.

5:49pm: Luis Castillo gets drilled in the right elbow by a Pedro Martinez pitch and he's hopping around in immense pain before falling to the ground. Mets trainers along with manager Jerry Manuel are out to check on Luis.

5:51pm: While Castillo tries to recover, we're shown a stat that the Mets have had players spend 1,007 days on the DL, more than any other team in baseball by a wide margin. Luis Castillo is ok, and finally gets to 1B. The bases are loaded with 2 outs for Daniel Murphy.

5:53pm: Daniel Murphy flies out to LF Raul Ibanez. 3 outs.

Bottom of 2nd Inning:
5:56pm: Jeremy Reed is in LF to replace Fernando Tatis.

5:57pm: Pedro Feliz pounds the ball onto the left-centerfield warning track for a leadoff double. ESPN announcers Jon Miller and Joe Morgan think Tim Redding got screwed by the home plate ump on the previous pitch that should've been called a strike instead of a ball. They're right.

5:59pm: Redding attempts a pickoff of Feliz at 2B but no dice.

6:00pm: Carlos Ruiz hits a weak grounder to 3B David Wright who makes a clean throw to 1B Daniel Murphy for the out. Feliz does not advance on the play. 5-3. 1 out.

6:01pm: Pedro Martinez grounds out to SS Anderson Hernandez, 6-3. Feliz moves to 3rd base on the play. 2 outs.

6:03pm: Jimmy Rollins flies out to LF Jeremy Reed. 3 outs.

Top of 3rd Inning:
6:05pm: David Wright is at the plate against Pedro Martinez for the first time ever. Well, that would make sense considering they've been teammates since 2005 up until this year, and David was on the DL the last time Pedro faced the Mets on August 23.

6:06pm: Pedro wins that battle getting Wright swinging at a full count 91 MPH fastball that is tipped but caught by catcher Carlos Ruiz. 1 out.

6:08pm: Carlos Beltran grounds out hard right to 1B Ryan Howard, who runs to the bag himself to get the out. 2 outs.

6:09pm: Daniel Murphy flies out to SS Jimmy Rollins in short leftfield. 3 up, 3 down.

Bottom of 3rd Inning:
6:12pm: Shane Victorino hits a weak chopper back to the mound. Tim Redding fields it and throws to Murphy at 1B for the out. 1-3. 1 out.

6:14pm: Chase Utley strikes out swinging at the high heat. 2 outs.

6:17pm: Tim Redding gets Ryan Howard to strike out swinging at the high heat on a full count. 3 outs.

Top of 4th Inning:
6:20pm: Jon Miller reports that the injury to Fernando Tatis was a sprained index finger on his left hand.

6:21pm: Jeremy Reed strikes out swinging at a fastball.  1 out.

6:22pm: Brian Schneider hits a hard grounder right to 1B Ryan Howard. He takes the ball to the bag for the out. 2 outs.

6:24pm: Anderson Hernandez flies out to SS Jimmy Rollins in shallow leftfield. 3 outs. Pedro is starting to cruise along in this game with 5 Ks in 4 IP.

Bottom of 4th Inning:
6:27pm: Raul Ibanez skies out to CF Carlos Beltran in right-centerfield. 1 out.

6:29pm: Jayson Werth smokes a ball right into the mitt of SS Anderson Hernandez. 2 outs.

6:30pm: Pedro Feliz grounds out to 3B David Wright. 5-3. 3 outs. That was 9 pitches for Redding, who has definitely settled in. Problem is, so has Pedro, and Tim Redding is usually garbage after 5 IP.

Top of 5th Inning:
6:33pm: Tim Redding grounds out to SS Jimmy Rollins. 6-3. 1 out. That makes 8 Met batters in a row retired by Pedro Martinez.

6:34pm: Luis Castillo is up with a little padding above his right elbow. However, he lines out to 2B Chase Utley. 2 outs.

6:35pm: Cory Sullivan tries to check his swing at a low pitch but he makes contact. The ball goes right back to Pedro Martinez on the ground, he throws to first. 1-3. 3 outs.

Bottom of 5th Inning:

6:39pm: Carlos Ruiz hits a shot to deep rightfield but it's tracked down by RF Cory Sullivan. 1 out.

6:41pm: Pedro Martinez lines out to Cory Sullivan in short rightfield. 2 outs.

6:43pm: Jimmy Rollins hits a popup on the infield which comes back towards the pitching mound. 1B Daniel Murphy makes the catch. 3 outs.

Top of 6th Inning:

6:46pm: David Wright belts a shot into deep left-center which he thinks may go out of the ballpark, but it hits off the wall and he has to speed up out of his home run trot and slide into 2nd for a double ahead of the throw.

6:51pm: Carlos Beltran strikes out swinging at an outside changeup. 1 out.

6:55pm: Daniel Murphy lines a 3-2 fastball right down the 1B line but it's JUUUST foul.

6:56pm: Daniel Murphy flies out to RF Jayson Werth. Wright can't advance on the play. 2 outs.

6:57pm: Jeremy Reed flies out to CF Shane Victorino. 3 outs.

Bottom of 6th Inning:

7:00pm: Tim Redding has thrown 88 pitches through 5 innings. This will likely be his final inning.

7:01pm: Shane Victorino flies out to CF Carlos Beltran. 1 out.

7:02pm: Chase Utley belts the ball to the centerfield warning track but Carlos Beltran catches it without a problem at around 390 feet. 2 outs.

7:05pm: Ryan Howard takes a full count walk. He, along with Jimmy Rollins, have never had a hit against Tim Redding.

7:06pm: Raul Ibanez grounds out to 2B Luis Castillo. 4-3. 3 outs. Gotta give a lot of credit to Tim Redding for his performance tonight. I wonder if Jerry will let him go some more?

Top of 7th Inning:

7:09pm: Pedro is definitely still pitching for the Phillies, considering the 4-hit shutout he's throwing along with 6 strikeouts and 1 walk.

7:10pm: Brian Schneider grounds out to 1B Ryan Howard who takes it himself. 1 out. Just saw that Tim Redding has thrown 103 pitches through 6 innings. Add to that the pitcher spot coming up, he'll definitely be pinch-hit for.

7:11pm: Anderson Hernandez lines a shot into left-centerfield that is cut off by LF Raul Ibanez which prevents Hernandez from stretching that out into a double.

7:12pm: Lefty hitting Josh Thole is in to pinch-hit for Tim Redding. This will be the first meeting between rookie Thole and veteran Pedro Martinez. Righty arm Sean Green is warming up in the Mets bullpen.

7:13pm: Josh Thole lines out to LF Raul Ibanez. 2 outs.

7:15pm: Sensing this is Pedro's final inning, the Philadelphia phaithful are giving him a huge cheer as he tries to get Luis Castillo out on the 2-2 count. Apparently the fans are also doing the wave. So I don't know which they're cheering for.

7:17pm: On the next pitch, Anderson Hernandez takes off for 2nd base. The throw from Ruiz bounces and hits Hernandez in the back, but the harder collision is from Utley's left hip knocking him in the head. Hernandez seems to be okay though.

7:18pm: Luis Castillo takes a 3-2 inside 92 MPH fastball for a walk. 

7:19pm: Cory Sullivan flies out to LF Raul Ibanez. 3 outs. What a performance from Pedro Martinez. FUCK!

Bottom of 7th Inning:

7:23pm: Sean Green is pitching in relief of Tim Redding. Redding went 6 IP giving up 1 run on 3 hits, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts. 

7:25pm: A ball gets away from Sean Green which hits Jayson Werth on the right leg. Clearly unintentional. The Phillies trainer is checking with Werth at first base to make sure his wheels are ok. He jogs up and down the line a bit to make sure, and he's good to go.

7:27pm: Pedro Feliz hits the first pitch he sees from Sean Green to 3B David Wright who starts the 5-4-3 double play. 2 outs.

7:28pm: Carlos Ruiz also hits the first pitch he sees from Sean Green but that goes right back to SS Anderson Hernandez. 6-3. 3 outs.

Top of 8th Inning:

7:30pm: Pedro is still pitching in the 8th inning. This is his longest outing of the season, having thrown 107 pitches in 7 innings. Hopefully this decision by Charlie Manuel will prove to be foolish, but somehow with the Mets, I doubt it.

7:32pm: David Wright strikes out swinging at an outside fastball which Wright laid off of the previous pitch. Both were outside. 1 out.

7:33pm: Steve Phillips thinks sending him out for the 8th was a mistake because he could mess up his arm in the process. Morgan and Miller seem to agree. It's the issue of gaining the win today in the short-term, potentially sacrificing Pedro and his brittle arm in the long-term. Time will tell.

7:34pm: Carlos Beltran grounds out to 2B Chase Utley on the full count curveball. 2 outs. 119 pitches thrown by Martinez in this game.

7:35pm: A huge "LET'S GO PEDRO" chant breaks out among the fans. 

7:36pm: Pedro gets ahead of Daniel Murphy 1-2. The fans rise to their feet. There's no way in hell Pedro Martinez pitches the 9th inning... or is there?

7:37pm: The last time Pedro went 8 innings in a start was against the Diamondbacks on May 30, 2006 while pitching with the Mets.

7:38pm: Daniel Murphy rips a fastball into the rightfield corner for a double. And that's going to be it for Pedro Martinez as Phillies manager Charlie Manuel walks to the mound to take him out of the game after 128 pitches.

7:39pm: Well, he's not taking him out after all. And the fans go nuts. Jon Miller made a reference to Grady Little in the 2003 postseason and how the decision to keep him in against the Yankees came back to bite the Red Sox in the ALCS. 

7:40pm: An 0-1 pitch to Jeremy Reed bounces in the dirt and gets away just a little from catcher Carlos Ruiz, but Daniel Murphy breaks for 3rd base. Ruiz throws down to Pedro Feliz and Murphy is out trying to steal 3rd. 3 outs. I understand the need to score runs, but that ball needed to get a lot further from Ruiz for Murphy to attempt that steal.

Bottom of 8th Inning:

7:44pm: Pedro Martinez threw 130 pitches in 8 innings. He's DEFINITELY done. The most pitches in a start he's thrown since May 1, 2001. 

7:45pm: Lefty Matt Stairs was announced as a pinch-hitter to begin the inning. This prompted Mets manager Jerry Manuel to make a pitching change and go with lefty Pedro Feliciano instead. The Phillies counter by swapping out Matt Stairs with righty hitter Ben Francisco.

7:47pm: Pedro Feliciano throws a slider right down the heart of the plate for strike 3. Ben Francisco dares to question that pitch? Is he joking? 1 out.

7:48pm: Jimmy Rollins hits a weak grounder to SS Anderson Hernandez. 6-3. 2 outs.

7:50pm: Shane Victorino pops out to Daniel Murphy in short rightfield. 3 outs.

Top of 9th Inning:

7:51pm: Ryan Madson comes in from the bullpen to close out the 1-0 game for Philadelphia. But we know the Mets CAN beat him, if they can't beat Pedro.

7:53pm: Jeremy Reed grounds out to 1B Ryan Howard who bobbles the ball, catches it, then throws onto Ryan Madson at 1B to make the out. 3-1. 1 out.

7:55pm: Brian Schneider belts a high fastball in the zone into right-centerfield for a single. Wilson Valdez is brought into pinch-run for Brian Schneider. Omir Santos would go behind the plate if the Mets tie or go ahead.

7:57pm: Jeff Francoeur is pinch-hitting for Anderson Hernandez. 

7:58pm: Jeff Francoeur strikes out swinging at a high heat fastball on an 0-2 count. Ugh. 2 outs.

7:59pm: Angel Pagan is in to pinch-hit for Pedro Feliciano.

8:00pm: Angel Pagan lines out to 3B Pedro Feliz. 3 outs. Game over. 

---------------------------------------------------------------

Phillies win 1-0 thanks to Pedro Martinez blanking the Mets through 8 innings and 130 pitches. Pedro gave up 3 hits, 1 walk while striking out 7 along the way. Ryan Madson gets his 8th save.

Tim Redding is the hard-luck loser going to 2-6, although he pitched extremely well for the Mets today, giving up 1 run on 3 hits, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts through 6 innings. 

So the Mets fall to 6-12 against the Phillies in 2009, and 63-81 overall. 

I believe that was the last nationally televised Mets game of 2009, which means I won't get to see them play again this year. That's probably beneficial for my sanity.

However, the Angels are going to be in the postseason, so there will be some ray of light in all of this.

Where the Mets stand in mid-September

I've been somewhat neglectful again of updating this blog on a consistent basis. The reason? Real life interferes.

But hopefully I'll find a little more time between all the sports action going on with the Mets and Angels, and other baseball playoff matchups, college football season now underway, and the NHL season starting in October.

So, with that out of the way, let's briefly talk about the New York Mets.

Through 143 games played, the Mets are 63-80. There are 19 games remaining in the season, so the chances of going 81-81 are virtually impossible unless the club goes 18-1. Now it's a matter of 70 wins instead of 81. Can they get there?

Back on August 6, I predicted that the Mets were going to end up with a final record of 77-85. However, even that seems unlikely unless they can go 14-5 to finish out the season. Possible, still not very probable, especially considering how the club has played over the past month.

Now, at best, the Mets are in the role of potentially playing spoilers to the rest of the NL East as they'll be playing Atlanta, Florida and Washington the rest of the way. None of them are in a strong position to take the NL Wild Card away from either the Colorado Rockies or Los Angeles Dodgers, although mathematically, Atlanta and Florida are still in the hunt.

As for 2010, there's going to be a LOT of talk going into the offseason as to what this Mets organization needs to do in order to rebound. The desperate need for a power-hitting leftfielder. How will the team fill holes at catcher, 1B, and the starting rotation? Will the bullpen undergo another overhaul outside of Frankie and Feliciano? That will all be covered in due time.

Right now, the Met players that are still healthy simply need to focus upon doing the best they can on the field. For many of them, this is an audition for a spot in the majors come 2010, never mind the Mets.